RMB appreciation aviation aviation paper finance welcomes industry catalyst
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Original title: Aviation papermaking finance ushers in another industry catalyst Source: Financial Investment Daily analysis believes that the appreciation of the RMB will reduce the cost of interest rates.
Recently, the renminbi has risen steadily, and the exchange rate has risen from the deduction. The appreciation expectation is obvious.
It can be seen that the US dollar index has appreciated by 1% this year, but the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by more than 1%.
Analysts pointed out that since the second half of last year, the PMI index has been 50 for two consecutive months.
2. Standing above the line of prosperity and dryness, it shows that the counter-cyclical contraction effect has appeared, the macroeconomic operation has stabilized and recovered, and the long exchange rate has risen.
The appreciation of the RMB will have a positive impact on a number of industries, including the aviation, papermaking, and large financial sectors. Investors can pay attention to related sectors and individual stocks.
■ Correspondent Lin Ke Photography Li Li1 Civil Aviation: Payment costs are expected to decrease. In November 2019, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines ASK (available passenger kilometers) increased by 4 each.
52%, passenger traffic growth rate was 3.
06%, the three major airlines in terms of load factor have mixed.
On the whole, the growth rate of the air passenger market has slightly rebounded from the previous month, and the air transport market has maintained an overall growth trend.
According to the forecast of the General Administration of Civil Aviation of China, the passenger transportation volume of civil aviation during the Spring Festival in 2020 will reach a record high, which is expected to reach 79 million, with an annual increase of about 8.
From the perspective of the industry, overall, the formal entry into the era of air travel, although the number of passengers per capita continues to increase, but still very different from the United States, there is still room for growth in air travel demand.
From the perspective of catalysts, as one of the RMB appreciation sectors, the aviation industry will benefit from RMB appreciation.
Some analysts pointed out that the aviation industry is a typical foreign exchange compensation industry, especially liabilities. There may be a large number of aviation equipment financing lease liabilities, and a certain amount of interest expenses and principal need to be paid each year.
Foreign exchange foreign currency debt ratio is high, RMB appreciation will cause one-time exchange gains, RMB appreciation will reduce the cost of interest rates.
Western Securities analyst Wu Jianliang said that aviation supply will continue to shrink in 2020, demand bottom will pick up, supply and demand will improve margins, and the industry is still in a high economic range.
The marketization of low-base blended air tickets continues to advance, and freight rates are expected to stabilize and rise.
At present, the three major aviation PBs are estimated to be in the historical bottom area, and the safety margin of the plate is high. It is recommended to place the layout.
Investors are advised to pay attention to China Southern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Spring Airlines.
Potential stocks selected by China Southern Airlines (600029) benefited from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area companies in the first half of 2019 to improve route quality, ASK growth rate slightly shifted, and gradually increased by 10.
At the same time, the company ‘s capacity structure in China is relatively high, and its short-term geopolitical impact is small. The oil tanker interval base itself, and if the 737Max grounding time exceeds expectations, it will benefit the industry’s supply and demand structure.
In addition, China Southern Airlines Group has formally implemented diversified and diversified reforms, with Guangdong State-owned Capital injecting 30 billion yuan.
The forthcoming capital increase is expected to be injected into listed companies, which will reduce the company’s asset-liability ratio, reduce financing costs, and provide capital protection for the long-term development of the company.
The capital increase will mainly serve the “Belt and Road” and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area strategies and accelerate the construction of the “Guangzhou Road”.
At present, the scale of Baiyun Airport’s competition in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area continues to increase, and the company as the main base hub airline company will fully benefit.
China Eastern Airlines (600115) has a huge business collaboration space. The company is located in the hinterland of the economically active Yangtze River Delta and has accumulated rich business express lines for decades.
Affected by the combined effects of economic fluctuations and major events, business and business demand weakened in the third quarter of 2019, and business express lines were significantly affected.
Among them, the quality of Shanghai’s market revenue has dropped significantly.
The company actively controlled costs and improved efficiency. In the third quarter, it reversed the trend and realized positive growth in main business profits.
After the National Day holiday, public business demand gradually stabilized and picked up, and the decline in domestic revenue narrowed rapidly.
It is expected that demand will gradually continue to recover in the next six months, and the main business profit will continue to improve every year.Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that in the past five years, China Eastern has led the mixed reform.
One after another with Delta, Air KLM and Ctrip to establish capital ties and complete cross-shareholdings with Auspicious.
The strategic cooperation of “capital + business” has huge space for business synergy, which is more conducive to the market-oriented reform of the state-owned enterprise system.
Huaxia Airlines (002928) profit-end performance elastic binding company is the first and only regional airline in China, with 144 routes, 92% of which are solo, and established six in Guiyang, Chongqing, Dalian, Hohhot, Xi’an and XinjiangThe operation base and three starting bases of Tianjin, Chengdu and Xingyi, the branch route points account for 43% of domestic branch airports.
The company has fully benefited from the booming third- and fourth-tier aviation markets. It has a first-mover advantage at all times, and its aircraft utilization and load factor have steadily increased.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that the company merged the regional aviation niche market and cooperated with the mainline aviation company. Its business model guarantees that the revenue will grow steadily with the input of transportation capacity.
With the rapid growth of demand for third- and fourth-tier aviation, while oil prices remain relatively low, the exchange rate has stabilized in stages, and the company’s profit-side performance in the next two years will be elastically transmitted.
Juneyao Airlines (603885) flight airline company bases on two flights in Shanghai, with a market share of about 9% in Shanghai Hongpu and 64% in June in Shanghai.
Shanghai + Nanjing accounted for 79% of total auspicious passengers.
Jiuyuan Airlines, the company’s holding subsidiary, uses Guangzhou Baiyun Airport as the main base airport. It is the only airline in China with the main operating base in Guangzhou except for China Southern Airlines. It is also the only main base flight in Guangzhou.
Haitong Securities pointed out that after the first intercontinental route Shanghai Pudong-Helsinki made its first voyage, the 787 entered a normal operating rhythm.
Subsequent companies plan to open intercontinental routes such as Melbourne, Manchester, Iceland, Dublin, etc. The overall aircraft operating efficiency is expected to further improve.
In addition, the Shanghai Municipal Government has excellent supplementary policies for intercontinental airlines in the base airlines, and the supplementary increase is also important.
2 Papermaking: Favorable for high import companies’ recent restructuring of the second foreign waste import. The cumulative total of two consecutive stages before 2020 is 319.
In 2009, the logic of the reform of the supply side of raw materials was deduced as scheduled.
Sofan Securities analyst Shi Fanke (Jin Qilin analyst) pointed out that according to the communication with the industry chain, although the papermaking and finished product inventory cycle has bottomed out, the current industry chain replenishment has not yet started, and the terminal demand margin will stabilize in 2020.Under the background of restricting the supply of upstream raw materials, the economy will definitely rise.
Some people in the industry pointed out that the appreciation of the RMB will help reduce the cost of imported raw materials in the paper industry.
At the same time, due to foreign currency debt, the conversion of RMB appreciation will bring considerable exchange gains for some enterprises.
Trade frictions have eased and expectations are expected, the renminbi continues to appreciate, alleviating cost pressure on paper companies, and companies with a higher proportion of imported pulp are more sensitive.
At the same time, through the steady advancement of supply-side reforms and environmental protection inspections, the backward production capacity of the papermaking industry was accelerated and eliminated.
In addition to the impact of the abolition of new regulations, the industry’s concentration has continued to increase, and leading companies’ bargaining power will also be improved.
With the price increase of the base paper in the early season of the fourth quarter of 2019, the bottom of the inventory has entered the replenishment stage. The paper prices of the various paper grades have stabilized and the logic of the rise has been smooth. The raw material side has been running in real time.
Industry insiders pointed out that in the third quarter, pulp prices continued to decrease sequentially, and port inventories in major global consumer markets remained high. In the next six months, the existing inventory pulp prices will continue to bottom out, which will continue to benefit pulp and paper companies, Sun Paper, and Chenming Paper.
In addition, the increase in the raw material gap under the limit of waste paper believes that the lack of endowment accelerates the clearing of SMEs in the industry, and has a comprehensive recycling channel and upstream layout leader Shanying Paper. Sun Paper continues to expand and its growth logic appears.
Potential stock selection Huatai Co., Ltd. (600308) New Year’s Performance 南京桑拿网 and High Resilience The company is the world’s largest news production base and the nation’s largest salt chemical industry base. In 2018, the growth rate was affected by the downturn of the paper industry cycle.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the overall cycle of the papermaking industry has declined marginally, but the size of cultural paper is better. The top four companies of coated paper cover 95% of the market share. The cultural paper industry has a higher concentration and supports the bargaining power to the industry leader.
The company has advantages in scale and customer advantage, leading the industry in newsprint business.
At present, the company’s leading product newsprint is exported to Europe, America, Southeast Asia, South Korea, India and other regions, and has established long-term friendly partnerships with major national newspapers, party newspapers, and printing materials companies.
If the company successfully realizes the production capacity of grade 1 m-phenylenediamine in 2019, it can increase its performance by 700 million to 1 billion, which will become the biggest highlight in 2020, which will bring high flexibility to the company’s 2020 performance.
Chenming Paper (000488) ‘s single-quarter profit increased quarter-on-quarter, although the company’s third-quarter performance appeared, but it increased by 18 compared to the previous quarter.
32%, quarterly profit increased quarter-on-quarter.
The unit production cost of self-made pulp is much lower than the price of externally purchased commercial pulp, thereby improving the company’s cost control ability and maintaining stable production operations.
GF Securities pointed out that after the second quarter of 2019, the market has clearly improved. The average price of major paper types has increased. The price of raw materials and wood pulp has continued to decline. The overall profitability of the industry has improved. The Shouguang Meilun 51-year high-end cultural paper project invested and constructed since 2018., Shouguang headquarters cultural paper renovation project, Shouguang Meilun 100 chemical pulp project, Huanggang Chenming chemical pulp project is operating normally, and the improvement of the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp will help improve the profitability of papermaking.
Overall, corporate profit is expected to continue to improve based on the expectation of replenishment of cultural paper in the fourth quarter.
Sun Paper (002078) benefited from the waste paper tightening. The company was a papermaking enterprise with obvious advantages in the early stage of overseas factory construction. At the same time, it was actively conducting internal technology research and development to use semi-chemical pulp produced by dissolving pulp waste to replace waste paper to produce corrugated board.
Huachuang Securities pointed out that the company’s 10-year wood chip pulp production line and 40-inch semi-chemical pulp production line have entered a stable production period in 2019, and the natural color high-yield biomass fiber project is expected to be put into production in the fourth quarter of 2019.
At present, 40 recycled fiber pulp board production lines in 120 papermaking projects in Laos are already in production, and finished kraft boxboard in the 1980s is under construction.
The company currently has a total capacity of 160 cartons of corrugated cardboard boxes and 110 tons of waste paper as a substitute for raw materials. This translates into an intensified domestic waste paper shortage in 2020, and the company is expected to benefit significantly.
Yueyang Forest Paper (600963) dual-main business continued to promote the company to have abundant resources and obvious geographical advantages. The controlling shareholder, China Paper, took the lead in the industry.
The company completed the asset replacement of subsidiaries, dispersed pulping business, expanded part of the papermaking business, acquired Chengtong Kaisheng to enter the ecological garden industry, and created a “paper + garden” dual main business model, which significantly improved profitability.Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that Chengtong Kaisheng, a wholly-owned subsidiary, is fully qualified and has leading technology and design capabilities.
The company steadily promotes the garden PPP model, undertakes a large number of municipal garden projects, has a large number of orders in hand, and participates in the construction of Xiong’an New District.
As the only garden listed company with a central enterprise background, the company can rely on the central enterprise Chengtong Group and China Paper, which has outstanding resource advantages, financing advantages and PPP project acquisition advantages. Industrial transformation and business synergy promote new vigor.
3 major finances: Benefiting from the global capital inflow of RMB appreciation, global hot money will be welcomed into China, thus bringing additional funds to the financial sector.
Some industry analysts point out that after hot money enters China, it will enter the banking system and securities field.
As for A shares, it is currently at a historically low level. The investment of funds is trying to promote the growth of A shares and further activate the non-bank financial industry.
As far as the banking sector is concerned, the current sector is estimated to be cost-effective and support the performance of the sector.
Wan Lian Securities analyst Guo Yan pointed out that looking ahead to 2020, the market’s relative estimated advantages in the banking sector will still be obvious under the replacement of ample liquidity in the market.
And asset quality is still an important disturbing factor.
The interest rate differential will enter a downward trend, but the amplitude may be limited.
Considering the establishment of wealth management subsidiaries of various banks, it may drive the growth rate of intermediate business revenue.
Recommended retail business accounted for a high proportion, intermediate business accounted for a high proportion, peers refused stocks with space.
For the securities sector, in addition to the appreciation of the renminbi to boost liquidity, the improvement of its fundamentals is also the main focus.
From a performance perspective, in December 2019, all 35 brokerages except Pacific Ocean achieved a positive monthly increase in operating income, of which 21 brokers increased by more than 100%.
Fang Caiwei, an analyst at Aijian Securities, pointed out that in 2019, due to a number of favorable internal and external factors, the bright performance of the A-share market led to the steady development of the brokerage business and the performance of the brokerage firm was good.
In 2020, through the implementation of multiple capital market reforms, the vitality of the capital market will be further stimulated, and the performance of listed securities companies is expected to continue the growth trend.
It is recommended to pay attention to leading securities firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities.
Potential stock selection China Merchants Bank (600036) highlights the advantages of technology in the company’s financial technology. From the beginning of this year, the development of financial technology will improve its core business indicators, thereby continuing to consolidate its retail business advantages and increase its valuation premium.
CITIC Securities pointed out that because of the card-free era, mobile phone apps replaced bank cards, and at the same time leveraged MAU assessment incentives, the number of retail customers will increase geometrically.
2.5 billion retail customers are expected to reach around 200 million in the future.
Mobile APP users will eventually become corporate customers and will contribute demand deposits to increase the proportion of demand deposits. Second, after the strength of financial technology has been strengthened, customer portraits have become more complete. CMB has accumulated nearly 10 years of data for long-tail retail customers.The control model is more effective, and the risk management ability of long-tail customers is enhanced, and it exceeds the industry average, and the non-performing rate will continue to improve.
Industrial Bank (601166) The company ‘s past interbank genes with rich experience in “Internet +” operations will still be able to bring transformation assistance to it in the future.
The role of Interbank Gene lies in its customer resources and “Internet +” operating experience accumulated in the development process of more than a thousand small and medium-sized financial institutions, which will facilitate its differentiated positioning in financial supply-side reform and provide comprehensive financial services for small and medium-sized banks.
In addition, the company conducts comprehensive operations through small and medium-sized financial institutions and subsidiaries to expand business types, which can improve return on assets and diversify risks.
Orient Securities pointed out that the company’s integrated business investment and investment bank has brought rapid growth in non-interest income, improved cycle resistance, and the transfer of interest margins in the index business, which has a comparative advantage in the industry.
In terms of long-term logic, through the continuous expansion of the scale of direct financing, it is expected that the company’s first-mover advantage in bond contracting, underwriting and underwriting will be more significant, in line with the long-term trend of the development of direct financing.
Huatai Securities (601688) has ranked first in the industry. Since its listing, its capital strength and profitability have accelerated to catch up; benefiting from a clear strategic positioning and strong strategic execution capabilities, the company’s development pace has further accelerated.At the same time as the first echelon, we have a forward-looking layout of wealth management and have seized the first-mover advantage in terms of the introduction of strategic shareholders.
GF Securities pointed out that benefiting from a clear strategic positioning and strong strategic execution capabilities, the company’s continuous development pace has further accelerated, while maintaining the first echelon of the securities industry, it has advantages in the capitalization of investment banks and derivatives.
On the whole, the current opening up of the capital market, the partial innovation of institutional business and the development of wealth management business are the inevitable directions of the securities industry, and continue to be optimistic about the company’s development prospects in the field of wealth management.
Haitong Securities (600837), a leading high-quality innovative brokerage company, continues to strengthen its internationalization, grouping, and comprehensive layout as a comprehensive all-round leader in A-shares.
The company’s performance in 2019 has grown rapidly, returning to the second place in the industry.
Great Wall Securities pointed out that under the background of the current era of a new era of bottom-up independent innovation that is different from the past, and the requirements of deep and multi-level capital market construction, the supervisory thinking should be limited to large companies with good corporate governance.The sequence of brokerage companies is to try first under the control of innovation risks. As a leading large brokerage company with high-quality innovation genes, the company will have outstanding achievements in innovative businesses such as CDR, GDR, science and technology board, GEM registration system and FICCPerformance, and further incorporated into the monopoly constitution.
The company is expected to benefit from the era of two-way opening up of the industry and continue to be optimistic about the company’s long-term development.